Entec Bulletin
The Day after Tomorrow: Our Environmental Scorecard

How are we doing?
Where are we up to?
Is all the effort worth it?
Am I making a difference?

A number of recent reports help us to answer these questions and assess environmental progress. First and foremost is the ground breaking Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It was called for by the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in 2000 and is the result of work by 1300 experts from 95 countries. It was supported by 22 of the world's leading scientific bodies including the Royal Society and overseen by a 45 member board of directors co-chaired by Dr Robert Watson, chief scientist of the World Bank and Dr A H Zakri director of the UN University's Institute of Advanced Studies.

You've probably guessed by now that it's not good news but what is interesting about the approach taken by the researchers is their focus on the planet's life support systems - the ecosystems that support the essential functions of food, fuel and fibre production, carbon sequestration, air and water purification, erosion control, flood, disease and climate regulation, medicines, recreation and tourism, nutrient cycling and cultural heritage. It's the first attempt to bring together information in this form, and as such it provides a powerful message that although the evidence remains incomplete, there is enough for the experts to warn that 15 out of 24 ecosystems measured are being degraded or used unsustainably. The report has 4 main findings, summarised below:

• Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively in the last 50 years than in any other period. More land was converted to agriculture since 1945 than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined. 10 to 30% of the mammal, bird and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction;
• Ecosystem changes that have contributed substantial net gains in human well being and economic development have been achieved at growing costs in the form of degradation of other services. Only four ecosystem services have been enhanced in the last 50 years: increases in crop, livestock and aquaculture production, and increased carbon sequestration for global climate regulation. Two services - capture fisheries and fresh water - are now well beyond levels that can sustain current, much less future, demands;
• The degradation could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century and is a barrier to achieving the UN Millennium Development goals addressing hunger, poverty and disease; and
• The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands can be met under some scenarios involving significant policy and institutional changes. However, these changes will be large and are not currently underway.

Wow - this is powerful stuff. Be as cynical as you like and take as much time as you want pointing out the faults in the logic and data of the research but the key message still remains - environmental things aren't looking good. It's true that the earth is a wondrous and bountiful place but you can't help reaching the conclusion that this is a global environmental emergency.

However, it is only one report and one that looks at the global situation. Even closer to home, the Environment Agency recently published its State of the Environment (SoE) 2005 report and how things have changed since their SoE 2000. Overall it points to better air and water quality, better use of previously used land but more flooding, less wildlife, a problem with soil erosion, continuing high levels of resource use but some good news on household waste which went down for the first time in 2003/4 and recycling increased to 17%. However, household waste is only a small component of the overall waste stream and we continue to produce substantial quantities of hazardous and nuclear waste. Concerns remain about the impacts of chemicals on humans and the environment, the impacts of environmental degradation on vulnerable communities and the level of climate change we will have to cope with in the near future. So some good environmental news but still worrying indicators in most areas. Broadly in line with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment?

Perhaps we aren't taking the environment nearly as seriously as we should be. However, let's resist the temptation to fall into despair. Let's use this information to help us to re-focus our efforts, define the scale of the challenges more clearly and lead us to better planning and solutions.
What does this mean for business?
Clearly the business risk of climate change needs to be given much more thought than it is getting now. And rather than just thinking about what effect our businesses will have on the environment, we need to think about how the environment is going to affect our businesses.

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